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PHEVs emit nearly five times more global warming emissions than official data show, according to a new report.

Growing Discrepancy In Lab and Actual Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit group. That contrasts significantly with lab tests, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from in-vehicle energy use monitors of 800,000 cars sold in the EU between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than lab estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst participating in the study. “This gap is growing and poses a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs emit nearly as much as petrol vehicles.”

Key Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric mode relative to overall mileage. The team determined that just a quarter of driving was done in electric mode, while official estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, emission levels were well above lab projections. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function independently, resulting to combustion motors burning fossil fuels for almost one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Consequences

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four major automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in fines between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 extra per year in operating costs than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The bold statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are clearly way off the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and cutting money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been brought back into political debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and opposition from EU countries with significant car industries.

Some senior politicians have suggested plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” solution to include in the legislation.

An external energy policy expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the report a “very useful addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was too little data to properly evaluate actual emissions.

“These findings show, without question, that the gap in official and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they said. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and in the light of this evidence.”